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China has successfully resolved many such paradoxes in its 30 years of reforms and the chances are high that it can do so again. However, the risk that something may go fundamentally wrong with the Chinese economic model as it tries to navigate the transition from investment-led growth dominated by state-owned enterprises and banks to consumer-led growth dominated by the private sector is probably the greatest risk now facing the world economy. Like the breakup of the euro, this is a risk with low probability but potentially huge impact. By comparison, whatever the Fed may or may not decide about U.S. monetary policy is a sideshow. Judging by recent market behavior, investors are coming to this conclusion.
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