1. Preface.

A city state Singapore made a miracle economic development since the independence from Malaysia in 1965 . Then, they attained per capita national income next to Japan now in Asia.

The economic policy of the powerful government guidance promoted by prime minister (of those days) Lee Kuan Yew that it is called the development dictatorship which became the motive power of the development win the highest praise from the knowledgeable people in the world.

Then, in 1990, Singaporean government announced the economic strategy (hereinafter 21 centuries vision.), which aimed at becoming developed country.

The vision shows that first, Singapore will become member of developed countries within 30years or 40years, then he catch up per capita GNP of U.S.A in 2030.

Will it be able to reproduce of passed brilliant result?

An economic prediction is the most difficulty, it is needless to say that the example of Heisei depression that a solution can't be seen yet.

Those days I tried to make the graduation thesis based on my experience of being engaged on construction of subway project in Singapore, which was first case in ASEAN.

It passed three years since graduation from economics department in the Keio university, I would like to review the hypothesis described in the graduation thesis.

2. Singapore and development dictatorship

In spite of the beautiful streets called garden city, they say that inhabitant in Singapore feel pressure.

I thought that the hard negotiation in business made it feel so at that time.

In Singapore they have a fine even if saliva is just emitted.

I noticed that the people action party controlled not only policy but also labor and masscommunication.

This dictatorship system brings the efficiency economic policy. And exchange with increase of income, the people endures the restriction of the freedom and a counter party was driven out.

In 1995, more than 81% of the Singaporean have their own houses and also purchase air conditioner that had been said as luxury article.

People desire changes from the material desire to the mental desire. Will the technique that had successes be successes in the future, too?

3. The change of Singapore development and factor

Since the independence from Malaysia, 2 big goals of economic policy of securing of the employment, income improvement kept being attained.

It is classified as follows; from 1960 to 1965 it was the import substitutive industrialization age and from 1965 to the 1st petroleum shock in 1973, it was export directional industrialization age.

For the time in 1967 the law of promotion of economic activities was enacted, and an active foreign capital introduction policy was taken.

From 1973 to 1979 it was depression conquest age.

It is distinguished as high wage value added policy age between 1973 and 1979 when it occurred minus growth suddenly.

It is distinguished from the non-manufacturing industry age after 1986.

Government analyzed a minus growth factor in 1985 that it would be difficult maintain of the domestic labor-intensive type industry that the competition power declined.

Then, the government promoted the high-class industry structure policy of rearing of the money market, which used the information infrastructure, the overseas moves of the labor-intensive type industry and rearing of the high technology industry.

A service industry such as sightseeing has been contributed as the middle.

It is shown that a governmental industry structure change policy proceeds especially the growth of the financial business is remarkable.

4. Geographical factor, which promoted economic development becoming the restraint factor of the economic development

Singapore attained high per capita national income next to Japan in Asia due to a success of the industrialization with being a non-resources country in addition to the traditional relay trade port and the sightseeing.

But, whatever is said, development of Singapore as an industrialization is meeting a limit because there is only an area of about Awaji Island and therefore only a scale corresponding to it exists in talented people as well.

For example the automobile industry was taken by Thailand, Malaysia by the geographical limitation that a country was small.

Singapore is not suitable for the semiconductor industry which government encourages. Because it short of the water of the good quality.

5. Deadlock of the government leadership type development by the foreign capital introduction policy

Efficiency of government enterprise decreases, and a un-profit enterprise has been being on the increase today.

The local private enterprise is hardly developed as a result of the cordial protection policy toward the government enterprise.

6. The dictatorship by the people action party is becoming old-fashioned

The people action party, which Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew leads, has monopolized all the seats of the assembly until 1965-1985.

Though some opposition party members are born after that, there is no change in one party dictatorship. This has done height efficiency economic development.

The party confined the anti-government power by the maintenance of the public order act, and had been controlled a labor union, a student movement, mass communicational, and establish an inhabitant committee corresponding to each electoral district.

It is one side where the Singaporean development dictatorship being praised highly by the knowledgeable people of the world.

It is changing gradually to get the mental desire.

It will be foreseen slow down of the economic growth as for the people's dissatisfaction due to delay of the democratization.

7. The elitism is anachronism

Singapore has been taken over the elitism of England, a suzerain power state, and a class principal as it is.

Then, Singapore has been prosperity use of the know-how of trade business learned from England and the English.

For industrialization further, Singapore receives not only foreign capital but also talented people such as high-class engineers, consultants actively, and it had enjoyed the "profit that got into the business later".

Singaporean elitism is radical. Then the ratio that the foundation education of 10 years is received only 25% ? A compulsory education system isn't established yet. It is the double track pattern system, which classes by the ability exists in the school child.

The rate of the college graduate is only 7%, and there is no plan of increasing these.

Although they say, "talented people bear a country", still drags the class principle of the colony. Therefore it will be said that the vision is anachronism.

8. Conclusion

Though a depression based on the financial crisis, which originates in Thailand in 1997 attacked all the Southeast Asia, Singapore, which has a financial system firmly, compares it in the circumference various country, and it is finished with little damage.

Depression recovery in Singapore is early and it can be said that smooth economic growth is being made in the quantitative side by the comparative advantage of that it has been carried out since early time about the IT (information technology) which is the infrastructure of this financial system.

But, there is a problem in the qualitative side.

When the gross national product reaches 2,000 dollars per capita, it is said that a national democratization requirement rises.

South Korea and Taiwan do a democratization experience as this theory.

Though Singapore reaches 2,000 dollars levels in 1975, One party dictatorship is still going on.

But, a dictatorship administration falls in nearby Indonesia, and similar movement happens even in Malaysia.

One party dictatorship is going on though Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yiew resigned in Singapore before 1990.

Democratization is probably the way, which isn't avoided.

A big fault of the 21st century vision is that an economical growth theory is put on not only the usual quantitative expansion but also about the new theory of qualitative growth is not shown by inside factors of rearing talented peoples.

Even if rise and fall of the countries in the world history was seen, the country, which becomes top position, neglected the innovation, which coped with a change in an environment, and the countries disappeared gradually.

December 10, 2000 Y.Noguchi